Cylvex tracks every published Wall Street price target for 12 months and reports how often the stock actually got there. Guests see counts and aggregate rates. Target values and firm names are shown to signed-in users. Not investment advice.
How often do analyst targets get hit?
The more ambitious the target, the less often it is reached.
How often raised analyst targets were reached within 12 months, by how far above the stock price they were set.
Target vs. stock price when published
0–10% above81.1%
10–20% above66.1%
20–40% above49.7%
40%+ above27.3%
Data through Oct 9, 2026
We tracked 35,141 Wall Street analyst targets.
Target vs. stock price when published
Reached
Targets
0–10% above
81.1%
3,954 of 4,876
10–20% above
66.1%
7,632 of 11,547
20–40% above
49.7%
5,536 of 11,130
40%+ above
27.3%
2,073 of 7,588
Targets set within 10% of the price were reached about 8 times in 10. Targets set 40% or more above the price: about 1 in 4.
Sample: 3,068 US stocks · 111 brokerages · targets published Sep 2021 – Sep 2025
Reached = stock traded at or above the target within 12 months
Delisted stocks excluded, so real rates are likely lower
Not investment advice.
By sector
The same targets, split by sector. The column shown is the 40%+ band (targets set 40% or more above the price). Compare sectors within a column; open all bands below.
By sector · Data through Oct 9, 2026
Sector
Targets
Reached (40%+ targets)
All sectors
35,141
27.3%2,073 of 7,588
Information Technology
8,694
30.1%609 of 2,023
Consumer Discretionary
4,891
24.0%236 of 985
Health Care
4,630
25.0%474 of 1,897
Industrials
4,468
30.2%193 of 640
Financials
3,032
34.9%141 of 404
Consumer Staples
1,699
—
Energy
1,486
—
Materials
1,350
—
Real Estate
1,197
—
Utilities
589
—
Communication Services
553
—
Other
2,552
27.9%221 of 793
Show all bands
Sector
Targets
0–10% above
10–20% above
20–40% above
40%+ above
All sectors
35,141
81.1%3,954 of 4,876
66.1%7,632 of 11,547
49.7%5,536 of 11,130
27.3%2,073 of 7,588
Information Technology
8,694
84.1%799 of 950
72.4%1,865 of 2,575
56.9%1,789 of 3,146
30.1%609 of 2,023
Consumer Discretionary
4,891
82.4%520 of 631
68.0%1,102 of 1,620
48.6%805 of 1,655
24.0%236 of 985
Health Care
4,630
82.6%360 of 436
64.2%715 of 1,114
52.8%625 of 1,183
25.0%474 of 1,897
Industrials
4,468
84.1%567 of 674
67.3%1,125 of 1,671
47.1%699 of 1,483
30.2%193 of 640
Financials
3,032
87.9%525 of 597
74.3%900 of 1,212
50.4%413 of 819
34.9%141 of 404
Consumer Staples
1,699
72.6%247 of 340
52.2%396 of 758
33.0%154 of 467
—
Energy
1,486
—
62.6%284 of 454
45.9%257 of 560
—
Materials
1,350
—
53.9%275 of 510
40.9%190 of 465
—
Real Estate
1,197
61.3%187 of 305
44.1%235 of 533
—
—
Utilities
589
—
—
—
—
Communication Services
553
—
—
—
—
Other
2,552
—
68.1%475 of 697
50.7%408 of 805
27.9%221 of 793
— = fewer than 300 targets in the cell; not shown.
Sectors are mapped from each company's current SIC code; companies without one are shown as Other.
Sectors that rose more over the period reached more targets; this reflects stock moves, not analyst skill.
How we count
Every published target is tracked for 12 months from its publication date.
Reached = the stock traded at or beyond the target within that window, using unadjusted daily highs (raised targets) and lows (lowered targets).
Targets published before a stock split are divided by the later split ratio so the set is on one share scale (†). The firm's original figure is kept on record.
Outcomes use unadjusted daily highs and lows over a 12-month window. Targets whose window includes a stock split, spin-off or other corporate action, or missing daily prices are excluded.
Open targets are still inside their window; their outcomes publish as the window closes.
Reached rate = targets hit within 12 months ÷ targets evaluated. Small samples are noisy. Reached rate is shown for firms with 5 or more evaluated targets; below that, counts only. Rates are per firm within one stock. Cylvex does not rank firms across stocks.
Consensus target
Each firm contributes its most recent published price target within the trailing 6 months — one target per firm.
Consensus = average of each firm's latest target (6 mo). When 8+ firms cover a stock, targets far outside the pack are excluded by a fixed statistical rule: Tukey's fence on a log scale (k = 2.2, Hoaglin & Iglewicz 1987) with a minimum spread floor of 15% so tightly clustered targets aren't over-flagged. No manual exclusions. Not a measure of analyst skill.
The consensus is recomputed daily. A stock shows a consensus from 8 firms; the firm count is always printed next to it.
Upside = (consensus ÷ last available price − 1). The price is the latest quote or last close shown with its time.
Reference
Each edition is fixed at its data date; a new edition is added after each monthly recompute. Earlier editions are never edited or removed.
Consensus window: 6 months. Outcome window: 12 months. Both roll daily.
Analyst targets and grades are third-party data. Prices are daily session data.
Targets published before a spin-off or other corporate action are left out of the set from the action date.
SIC to sector map (sic-v1)
Four-digit SIC codes, matched top to bottom; the first matching row wins. Codes outside every range, and companies without a code, are shown as Other.