ACGL

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) is expected to report a decline in both revenues and earnings for Q3 2026, but the Zacks model predicts an earnings beat due to a positive Earnings ESP of +11.70% and Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to benefit from rate increases, new business growth, and strong underwriting performance, with net premiums earned projected at $3.9B and net investment income at $432.2M.

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) declined 1.04% to $100.24 while broader markets gained, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.58% rise. Despite a strong 6.68% monthly gain, the stock faces headwinds with upcoming earnings on October 27, 2026 expected to show a 25.99% EPS decline year-over-year and 5.49% revenue drop. The company holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating with a Forward P/E of 10.45, trading at a discount to its industry average.

Zacks explains its Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) methodology, which identifies stocks likely to beat quarterly earnings expectations by comparing the most recent analyst estimates against consensus estimates. The system combined with Zacks Rank has historically produced positive surprises 70% of the time with ~28% annual returns. Arch Capital Group and MetLife are highlighted as current examples with positive ESP figures.

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) closed at $99.17, up 1.61%, outperforming the S&P 500. The property and casualty insurer is expected to report earnings on October 27, 2026, with forecasted EPS of $2.05 (down 25.99% YoY) and revenue of $4.46 billion (down 5.49% YoY). The stock holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with a Forward P/E of 10.06, trading at a discount to its industry average.

The article explains Zacks' Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) methodology for identifying stocks likely to beat quarterly earnings expectations. It highlights that combining a positive Earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 or better has historically produced 28.3% annual returns. Two finance stocks are featured as examples: MSCI with a +0.60% ESP ahead of October 20 earnings, and Arch Capital Group with an +8.91% ESP before October 27 earnings.

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) closed at $96.08, up 1.86% and outperforming the S&P 500's 0.47% decline. However, the company faces headwinds with projected Q3 EPS down 29.24% year-over-year and full-year revenue expected to decline 5.89%. The stock holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with a Forward P/E of 9.93, trading at a discount to its industry average.

Arch Capital Group (ACGL), a property and casualty insurer, has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates with an average surprise of 2.43% over the past two quarters. The company currently has a positive Earnings ESP of +24.57% combined with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting another earnings beat is likely in its next report expected on October 27, 2026.

The article highlights two finance stocks with positive Earnings Surprise Prediction (ESP) figures that could beat analyst expectations in their upcoming earnings reports. Arch Capital Group (ACGL) has a +24.57% ESP ahead of its October 27, 2026 earnings release, while CME Group (CME) has a +0.26% ESP before reporting on October 21, 2026. Both stocks carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating.

Arch Capital Group (ACGL) declined 2.9% to $92.36, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.25% loss. The property and casualty insurer is expected to report earnings on October 27, 2026, with projected EPS of $1.88 (down 32.13% YoY) and revenue of $4.46 billion (down 5.4% YoY). The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with a Forward P/E of 10.07, trading at a discount to its industry average.

Cincinnati Financial is expected to report Q3 2026 revenues rising 5.5% to $3B, but EPS declining 30.2% to $1.99. The company benefits from higher insured exposures, improved pricing, and new business growth in premiums, while higher bond yields support investment income.

However, elevated claims costs and catastrophe losses are pressuring profitability. The stock has a positive Earnings ESP of +2.51% and Zacks Rank #2, suggesting potential for an earnings beat.

Brown & Brown (BRO) is projected to report Q3 2026 revenues of $1.76 billion (up 9.8%) and EPS of $1.08 (up 2.9%) on October 26. The company has a positive Earnings ESP of +1.62% and Zacks Rank #3, signaling potential for an earnings beat. Growth drivers include acquisitions, new business, and higher commissions, though rising expenses may provide headwinds.

Principal Financial Group (PFG) is expected to report improved third-quarter 2026 results on October 26, with revenues projected at $4.31 billion (up 10.6% YoY) and earnings at $2.46 per share (up 17.4% YoY). However, the Zacks quantitative model does not predict an earnings beat due to 0.00% Earnings ESP and a Rank #3 rating. Growth drivers include higher premiums, improved mortality, and positive market conditions, though higher claims expenses may offset gains.

Axis Capital is expected to report a year-over-year earnings decline of 8.6% to $2.97 per share for Q3 2026, despite revenue growth of 4.6% to $1.72 billion. With a negative Earnings ESP of -4.15% and Zacks Rank #3, the stock is not considered a compelling earnings-beat candidate. The company missed consensus estimates by 12.07% in the last quarter.

Globe Life Inc. (GL) strengthens its growth outlook through premium expansion, AI adoption, and rising investment income. The company expects 2026 premium growth of 6.5-7%, with health premiums projected to rise 14-16%. GL anticipates 7% excess investment income growth and plans $670-$700 million in buybacks, supported by a solid capital position.

W.R. Berkley reported Q3 2026 earnings of $1.17 per share, beating consensus estimates of $1.14, but missed revenue expectations with $3.76 billion versus the estimated $3.84 billion. The company received a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating, suggesting near-term performance in line with the market. The property and casualty insurance industry ranks in the top 26% of Zacks industries.

Unum Group projects 4-7% premium growth and adjusted operating EPS of $8.60-$8.90 in 2026, supported by strong persistency, higher sales, and digital investments. The company plans $1 billion in buybacks but faces headwinds from rising claims costs and declining investment income. Comparable industry players NMI Holdings, Palomar Holdings, and Arch Capital also show positive earnings momentum.

Globe Life Inc. (GL) is anticipated to report improved third-quarter 2026 results on October 21, with revenue expected at $1.61 billion (+5.9% YoY) and earnings at $4.87 per share (+1.2% YoY). The company expects life underwriting margins of 52-53% and health margins of 29-32%, supported by premium growth and higher investment yields. Net investment income is projected to reach $297 million (+3.8% YoY), while life and health assumption updates are estimated at $110-$130 million.

Chubb Limited is expected to report Q3 2026 results on October 20 with revenues projected to rise 3.6% to $16.72 billion, but earnings are forecast to decline 12.8% to $6.53 per share. While premium growth, international expansion, and higher investment income should support results, catastrophe losses, softer property pricing, and rising expenses are expected to pressure profitability.

W.R. Berkley Corporation is predicted to beat third-quarter 2026 earnings expectations with a +1.31% Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3. Insurance premiums are expected to grow 3.6% while reinsurance premiums may decline 0.9%. The combined ratio is estimated at 92.77%, supported by disciplined underwriting but pressured by elevated catastrophe losses from severe convective storms.

The Travelers Companies (TRV) is expected to report a 15.2% decline in Q3 2026 EPS to $6.90 with flat revenues at $12.4B. Despite the projected decline, the stock has a positive Earnings ESP of +0.77% and Zacks Rank #3, suggesting a potential earnings beat driven by higher investment income and better pricing. However, catastrophe claims could offset gains from strong retention and underwriting discipline.