FCX

Zacks highlights two Basic Materials stocks with positive Earnings Surprise Prediction (ESP) figures that could beat upcoming earnings expectations. Air Products and Chemicals (APD) holds a Hold rating with a +0.44% ESP ahead of its November 5 earnings release, while Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has a Buy rating with a +0.63% ESP before reporting on October 27. Both stocks show potential for positive earnings surprises based on recent analyst revisions.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is expected to report Q3 2026 earnings on Oct. 27 with an estimated 78 cents per share. The mining company is predicted to beat consensus estimates, supported by favorable copper prices around $6.40/lb. However, results will be challenged by a 23% decline in copper sales and 70% drop in gold sales due to Grasberg mine disruptions, along with unit costs rising 44% year-over-year.

The article compares two commodity plays: MP Materials, a rare-earth producer with government backing and price protections, versus Freeport-McMoRan, an established copper giant benefiting from data center and power grid demand. MP Materials offers higher growth potential but more volatility, while Freeport-McMoRan provides stability with strong copper demand expected to grow 50% by 2040.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) declined 1.26% to $68.87, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.28% gain on October 20, 2026. The mining company has lost 3.34% over the past month.

However, analysts project strong earnings growth with Q3 EPS expected at $0.75 (up 50% YoY) and full-year earnings of $2.9 per share (up 63.84% YoY). FCX carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) rating with a Forward P/E of 24.03 and PEG ratio of 0.66, suggesting attractive valuation relative to growth prospects.

Freeport-McMoRan stock declined 3.89% on October 14, 2026, underperforming the S&P 500's 1.11% loss. Despite a 4.38% monthly gain, the company faces a Hold rating with a Zacks Rank of #3. Upcoming Q3 earnings on October 27 are expected to show 50% EPS growth to $0.75 and 1.64% revenue increase to $7.09 billion, though the Mining - Non Ferrous industry ranks in the bottom 33% of sectors.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) declined 1% on October 8, 2026, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.47% loss. The stock has fallen 5.73% over the past month, significantly lagging the sector.

However, the company is expected to report strong Q3 earnings on October 27 with 46% EPS growth year-over-year, and full-year guidance shows 63.84% earnings growth. FCX currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with a Forward P/E of 24.81, trading at a slight discount to its industry average.

The article explains the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) tool, which identifies stocks likely to beat quarterly earnings estimates by comparing the most recent analyst estimates against consensus estimates. Two Basic Materials stocks highlighted are Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) with a +0.48% ESP and a Hold rating, and Air Products and Chemicals (APD) with a +0.79% ESP and a Buy rating, both showing positive signals for potential earnings surprises.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has attracted significant investor attention recently. While the company shows strong earnings growth (+60.5% for current fiscal year) and has consistently beaten consensus estimates, the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past month (-5.3% vs +1.4%).

The company received a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating, suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term. Valuation metrics indicate the stock is trading at par with peers.

Freeport-McMoRan has demonstrated a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 20.32% over the last two quarters. The company currently has a positive Earnings ESP of +6.90% combined with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting another earnings beat is likely in its October 27, 2026 report. Stocks with this combination historically beat consensus estimates nearly 70% of the time.

Freeport-McMoRan and BHP Group, two of the world's largest copper producers, have surged over 36% in 2026, tripling the S&P 500's 12% return. Driven by global copper demand from electrification, EVs, and AI infrastructure, both companies benefit from tight copper supplies and strong financial performance. BHP offers better diversification and a 4% dividend yield, while Freeport provides pure copper exposure with growth potential from leaching technologies.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) reported Q3 2026 copper production of 830 million pounds and gold production of 230,000 ounces, broadly in line with expectations. The company continues recovery of its Grasberg Block Cave mine with mill throughput at 67% of normalized rates, targeting 80% capacity by mid-2027.

FCX is advancing growth projects including leach initiatives, Bagdad expansion, and El Abra regulatory processes. Stock has outperformed the industry with a 78.7% gain over the past year.

AI data center expansion is driving significant demand for raw materials and infrastructure. Freeport-McMoRan, Vulcan Materials, and Vertiv are well-positioned to benefit from multiyear growth in copper, aggregates, and cooling/power solutions as hyperscaler spending continues to surge.

Freeport-McMoRan closed at $70.70, down 1.75%, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.17% loss. The stock has declined 4.99% over the past month, though it outperformed its sector's 8.27% loss.

Upcoming earnings are expected to show a 46% EPS increase to $0.73 and revenue of $7.07 billion. The company holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with a Forward P/E of 25.5 and PEG ratio of 0.7.

Southern Copper is advancing $10.2 billion in Mexican investments to support long-term growth, with the El Pilar project set for construction in 2027 and production beginning in 2029. The company targets 1.056 million tons of copper production in 2029 and 1.6 million tons by 2035, positioning itself as a fully integrated copper producer. Peers Teck Resources and Freeport-McMoRan are also advancing major expansion projects to capitalize on growing copper demand.

Nucor Corporation is set to report Q3 2026 results on October 26, with consensus estimates projecting $10.53B in sales (up 23.6% YoY) and EPS of $5.71. The steel producer is expected to benefit from higher average selling prices and stable volumes in its Steel Mills and Steel Products segments, supported by rising U.S. steel prices and tight supply conditions. However, the company's earnings surprise model shows a 0.00% Earnings ESP, suggesting limited upside surprise potential.

The Vanguard Materials Index Fund ETF Shares (VAW) is a passively managed ETF offering broad exposure to the materials sector with low costs (0.09% expense ratio) and strong diversification across 113 holdings. The fund has gained 10.27% year-to-date and 14.07% over the past year, earning a Zacks ETF Rank of 1 (Strong Buy). With $3.24 billion in assets and a beta of 0.97, it presents a medium-risk option for materials sector exposure.

Copper demand is projected to exceed supply with a widening gap after 2030, driven by increasing costs, declining ore grades in mature mines, and permitting challenges. Over 60% of incremental copper demand through 2040 will come from AI data centers and energy transition initiatives. While technological improvements and substitution effects may provide some mitigation, the structural supply constraints suggest long-term bullish prospects for copper and copper-related investments.

Five mining and precious metals companies are positioned to beat Q3 2026 earnings estimates, supported by elevated commodity prices. Gold averaged $4,305/oz (up 23% YoY), silver averaged $63.22/oz (up 59% YoY), and copper averaged $6.53/lb, though higher input costs partially offset gains. FreeportMcMoRan, Franco-Nevada, Lundin Mining, OR Royalties, and Wheaton Precious Metals all show positive Earnings ESP and favorable Zacks Ranks.

Newmont Corporation is set to report Q3 2026 results on October 22, with analysts predicting an earnings beat. While higher realized gold prices (~$4,428/oz, up 25% YoY) are expected to boost revenues and margins, weaker production (down 13% YoY to 1.29M oz) and significantly higher costs (AISC up 25.2% YoY to $1,961/oz) are likely to offset pricing gains. The company faces headwinds from strategic divestitures, lower output from key mines, and elevated sustaining capital spending.

The mining industry is entering Q3 2026 earnings season with strong support from elevated commodity prices. Gold averaged $4,305/oz (up 23% YoY), silver averaged $63.22/oz (up 59% YoY), and copper averaged $6.53/lb, though higher input costs partially offset gains. Five mining and precious metals companies are identified as likely to beat earnings estimates this season.