MRNA

Moderna's stock fell 18% after reports of a data leak regarding its personalized melanoma vaccine showed a 42% reduction in recurrence or death risk when paired with Merck's Keytruda—lower than Phase II results of 49%. The full Phase 3 results were scheduled for release on October 24, and the leaked figures fell short of market expectations despite the company's 600% gain in 2026.

Moderna has surged over 600% in 2026, driven by breakthrough Phase 3 trial results for its personalized cancer vaccine (intismeran autogene) combined with Merck's Keytruda, plus FDA approval for its flu vaccine mFLUSIVA. However, despite strong innovation, the stock appears overvalued at a $90 billion market cap with a 45% downside according to Wall Street analysts. The company would need to generate unrealistic revenue levels to justify current valuations, leaving little room for error.

Moderna is transitioning from a COVID-19 vaccine company to an oncology-focused biotech firm. The company announced positive phase 3 results for its personalized cancer vaccine (intismeran autogene) paired with Merck's Keytruda for melanoma treatment. With the global oncology market projected to grow from $253 billion to over $700 billion by 2034, Moderna's stock has surged over 600% this year, though it now trades 61% above Wall Street's average price target of $123.